This is a brief overview of where computing performance is heading. The exponential rise in CPU performance as predicted by Moore's law is apparently also true for individual components, at least when looking at historical data.
RAM / working memory
The following is an overview of the year in which the first computer came to the mass market with the given amount of working memory. The numbers are extrapolated to reflect that there is a thousandfold increase every 17 years.
The years may be one year off and the exponential growth has only been achieved for 3 generations, so the extrapolation may start to deviate substantially after another 5 generations or so. Hence, this should only serve as an idea as to when you will be able to buy your first exa-computer, roughly.
Also note that a luma-computer would require the same amount of atoms as the earth is built up of.
HDD / mechanical storage
There appears to be a 17 year cycle for storage devices too. The list below contains the years in which the first storage device came to the mass market with given amount of capacity:
Perhaps grid storage or cloud storage will replace the majority of local storage in the next 10 years, even for home computers. By 2042 there may be no HDD needed for any computer as mechanical devices for storage will have been replaced by other means of storage, making these numbers meaningless.
Perhaps grid storage or cloud storage will replace the majority of local storage in the next 10 years, even for home computers.
There'll have to be a whole new communications revolution before traffic over the internet becomes as fast as traffic over a local bus. Though I'm sure Gates will love the licensing opportunities and sheer control of remote Windows booting.
Quote:
By 2042 there may be no HDD needed for any computer as mechanical devices for storage will have been replaced by other means of storage, making these numbers meaningless.
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Hello,
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Tim Bass
Thu, 15 Nov 2007 23:55:07 +0000
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