Tim Bass
07-20-2008 05:10 AM
David Luckman posts a good question in
Measuring a Market’s Maturity.* Here is a slightly*revised reprint of our reply:
A few folks have tried to tie “maturity” to “if the code is robust” or “if the product has certain product features.” The way we have addressed this emerging controversy over at
The CEP blog is to center the discussion around the
Gartner Hype Cycle, which is a pretty good model for representing the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies.
On CEP Maturity and the Gartner Hype Cycle
Since*many folks work*very closely with
Gartner, I expect*they are keenly aware of Gartner’s view on technology adoption maturity models and their definitions. Just for our readers who might not be as familar, I*quote Gartner’s definitions below to be complete from
here:
A hype cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies. The term was coined by Gartner[citation needed], an analyst/research house, based in the United States, that provides opinions, advice and data on the global information technology industry.
Since 1995, Gartner has used hype cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or “hype” and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies. Hype cycles also show how and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted. According to Gartner, hype cycles aim to separate the hype from the reality, and enable CIOs and CEOs to decide whether or not a particular technology is ready for adoption. A longer-term historical perspective on such cycles can be found in the research of the economist Carlota Perez.
A hype cycle in Gartner’s interpretation comprises 5 steps:
“Technology Trigger” - The first phase of a hype cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
“Peak of Inflated Expectations” - In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
“Trough of Disillusionment” - Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
“Slope of Enlightenment” - Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
“Plateau of Productivity” - A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
The term is now used more broadly in the marketing of new technologies.
We used the
Gartner Hype Cycle in
Two-Thirds of Our Readers Say CEP is Still Immature as a basis for having interested readers vote, and in a unscientific straw poll, the readers indicated that, in their view, CEP is still immature.
At the CEP Blog*we ground our discussions and*terminology*on maturity in Gartner’s models on maturity, and we ground our discussions on event processing in the art-and-science of a long standing domain in event processing - multisensor data fusion (MSDF).
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